Quantitative Economics
Journal of the Econometric Society
Edited by: Bernard Salanié • Print ISSN: 1759-7323 • Online ISSN: 1759-7331
Edited by: Bernard Salanié • Print ISSN: 1759-7323 • Online ISSN: 1759-7331
Quantitative Economics: May, 2025, Volume 16, Issue 2
https://doi.org/10.3982/QE1492
p. 615-657
Michael Dotsey|Wenli Li|Fang Yang
We build a unified framework to quantitatively examine how demographic transition and industrial policies have contributed to China's economic growth in the past five decades. On the demographic side, we consider evolutions in government population‐control policies, life expectancy, and pension income replacement. Industrial policies include changes in the speed of the growth of entrepreneurship, industry‐specific interest subsidies, and financial intermediation costs. Our analyses suggest that the demographic transition alone hardly affects the aggregate savings rate, mainly due to general equilibrium feedback effects from prices. However, demographics account for a considerable fraction of the increase in per capita output growth since 1970. By comparison, industrial policy changes contribute significantly to the rise in both the aggregate savings rate and per capita output growth during the period. Notably, the interactions between the demographic transition and industrial policy changes cause aggregate savings to rise, but have little effect on per capita output growth. A novel factor of the model is endogenous human capital accumulation, a driver of per capita output growth. Our results are robust to the endogenization of fertility decisions.
Michael Dotsey, Wenli Li, and Fang Yang
This supplement contains material not found within the manuscript.
Michael Dotsey, Wenli Li, and Fang Yang
The replication package for this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13830680. The Journal checked the data and codes included in the package for their ability to reproduce the results in the paper and approved online appendices.
July 5, 2026