Quantitative Economics

Journal of the Econometric Society

Edited by: Bernard Salanié • Print ISSN: 1759-7323 • Online ISSN: 1759-7331

Quantitative Economics: May, 2025, Volume 16, Issue 2

The Role of Storage in Commodity Markets: Indirect Inference Based on Grain Data

https://doi.org/10.3982/QE2329
p. 705-747

Christophe Gouel|Nicolas Legrand

We develop an indirect inference approach relying on a linear supply and demand model serving as an auxiliary model to provide the first full empirical test of the rational expectations commodity storage model. We build a rich storage model that incorporates a supply response and four structural shocks and show that exploiting information on both prices and quantities is critical for relaxing previous restrictive identifying assumptions and assessing the empirical consistency of the model's features. Finally, we carry out a structural estimation on the aggregate index of the world's most important staple food products. Our estimations show that supply shocks are the main drivers of food market dynamics and that our storage model is consistent with most of the moments in the data, including the high price persistence so far the subject of a long‐standing puzzle.


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Supplemental Material

Supplement to "The Role of Storage in Commodity Markets: Indirect Inference Based on Grain Data"

Christophe Gouel and Nicolas Legrand

This supplement contains material not found within the manuscript.

Supplement to "The Role of Storage in Commodity Markets: Indirect Inference Based on Grain Data"

Christophe Gouel and Nicolas Legrand

The replication package for this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14591286. The authors were granted an exemption to publish their data because either access to the data is restricted or the authors do not have the right to republish them. Therefore, the replication package only includes the codes but not the data. However, the authors provided the Journal with (or assisted the Journal to obtain) temporary access to the data. The Journal checked the restricted data and the provided codes for their ability to reproduce the results in the paper and approved online appendices.