Quantitative Economics
Journal of the Econometric Society
Edited by: Bernard Salanié • Print ISSN: 1759-7323 • Online ISSN: 1759-7331
Edited by: Bernard Salanié • Print ISSN: 1759-7323 • Online ISSN: 1759-7331
Quantitative Economics: May, 2025, Volume 16, Issue 2
https://doi.org/10.3982/QE2055
p. 405-457
Yoosoon Chang|Ye Lu|Joon Y. Park
In this paper, we analyze regressions with observations collected at small time intervals over a long period of time. For the formal asymptotic analysis, we assume that samples are obtained from continuous time stochastic processes, and let the sampling interval δ shrink down to zero and the sample span T increase up to infinity. In this setup, we show that the standard Wald statistic diverges to infinity and the regression becomes spurious as long as δ → 0 sufficiently fast relative to T → ∞. Such a phenomenon is indeed what is frequently observed in practice for the type of regressions considered in the paper. In contrast, our asymptotic theory predicts that the spuriousness disappears if we use the robust version of the Wald test with an appropriate long‐run variance estimate. This is supported, strongly and unambiguously, by our empirical illustration using the regression of long‐term on short‐term interest rates.
Yoosoon Chang, Ye Lu, and Joon Y. Park
The replication package for this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14010992. The Journal checked the data and codes included in the package for their ability to reproduce the results in the paper and approved online appendices.July 5, 2026