Quantitative Economics

Journal of the Econometric Society

Edited by: Bernard Salanié • Print ISSN: 1759-7323 • Online ISSN: 1759-7331

Quantitative Economics: Jul, 2025, Volume 16, Issue 3

Asymmetric Transmission of Oil Supply News

https://doi.org/10.3982/QE2548
p. 947-979

Mario Forni|Alessandro Franconi|Luca Gambetti|Luca Sala

We provide new evidence on the asymmetries in the transmission of oil supply news shocks in the US using a nonlinear Proxy‐SVAR. A shock that increases oil prices has large and persistent effects on real activity and relatively small effects on prices. On the contrary, a shock that reduces oil prices has smaller real effects and large effects on prices. We rationalize these findings through the behavior of uncertainty: uncertainty increases independently of the sign of the shock, amplifying the contractionary real effects of a positive shock and dampening the expansionary real effects of a negative shock. The opposite holds for prices. We find little evidence of an asymmetric response of monetary policy.


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Supplemental Material

Supplement to "Asymmetric Transmission of Oil Supply News"

Mario Forni, Alessandro Franconi, Luca Gambetti, and Luca Sala

The replication package for this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15044034. The Journal checked the data and codes included in the package for their ability to reproduce the results in the paper and approved online appendices.