Quantitative Economics
Journal of the Econometric Society
Edited by: Bernard Salanié • Print ISSN: 1759-7323 • Online ISSN: 1759-7331
Edited by: Bernard Salanié • Print ISSN: 1759-7323 • Online ISSN: 1759-7331
Quantitative Economics: Jul, 2025, Volume 16, Issue 3
https://doi.org/10.3982/QE2548
p. 947-979
Mario Forni|Alessandro Franconi|Luca Gambetti|Luca Sala
We provide new evidence on the asymmetries in the transmission of oil supply news shocks in the US using a nonlinear Proxy‐SVAR. A shock that increases oil prices has large and persistent effects on real activity and relatively small effects on prices. On the contrary, a shock that reduces oil prices has smaller real effects and large effects on prices. We rationalize these findings through the behavior of uncertainty: uncertainty increases independently of the sign of the shock, amplifying the contractionary real effects of a positive shock and dampening the expansionary real effects of a negative shock. The opposite holds for prices. We find little evidence of an asymmetric response of monetary policy.
Mario Forni, Alessandro Franconi, Luca Gambetti, and Luca Sala
The replication package for this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15044034. The Journal checked the data and codes included in the package for their ability to reproduce the results in the paper and approved online appendices.