Theoretical Economics
Journal of the Econometric Society
Edited by: Federico Echenique • ISSN (e): 1555-7561 • ISSN (print): 1933-6837
Edited by: Federico Echenique • ISSN (e): 1555-7561 • ISSN (print): 1933-6837
Theoretical Economics: May, 2019, Volume 14, Issue 2
https://doi.org/10.3982/TE2456
p. 437-473
In a general equilibrium model with a continuum of traders and bounded aggregate endowment, I investigate the Market Selection Hypothesis that markets favor traders with accurate beliefs. Contrary to known results for economies with (only) finitely many traders, I find that risk attitudes affect traders' survival and that markets can favor "lucky" traders with incorrect beliefs over "skilled" traders with accurate beliefs. My model allows for a clear distinction between luck and skills and it shows that market selection forces induce efficient prices even when accurate traders do not survive in the long run.