Theoretical Economics

Journal of the Econometric Society

Edited by: Federico Echenique • ISSN (e): 1555-7561 • ISSN (print): 1933-6837

Theoretical Economics: Nov, 2020, Volume 15, Issue 4

The wisdom of the crowd in dynamic economies

https://doi.org/10.3982/TE3924
p. 1627-1668

Pietro Dindo, Filippo Massari

The wisdom of the crowd applied to financial markets asserts that prices represent a consensus belief that is more accurate than individual beliefs. However, a market selection argument implies that prices eventually reflect only the beliefs of the most accurate agent. In this paper, we show how to reconcile these alternative points of view. In markets in which agents naively learn from equilibrium prices, a dynamic wisdom of the crowd holds. Market participation increases agents' accuracy, and
equilibrium prices are more accurate than the most accurate agent.


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