Do price dynamics really matter for food security ? Evidence from African Countries.

Food security in Africa remains vulnerable to volatile price dynamics, particularly in price dynamics pressures on essential commodities. Understanding how these dynamics interact with institutional frameworks is critical for effective policymaking.  Existing studies often overlook the nuanced role of institutional quality in moderating the relationship between price fluctuations and food accessibility. To address this gap, this study examines the effect of price dynamics on the food security. We adopt a dynamic panel model, controlling first for the cross-sectional dependence and autocorrelation issues. Using System-GMM estimation on panel data from 32 African countries (1995–2020), the study constructs a composite food security index by Principal Component Analysis and finds that price dynamics significantly undermines food security. This indicates that price dynamics reduced the food security rate of 0.0269 standard deviations in Africa, but the identification of a quadratic relationship at a 29.63% level does pose an intriguing question. Institutional quality mitigates price dynamic’s harm: a 1-point improvement in governance increases food security of 0.119 standard deviations during price shocks globally in Africa and in his three regions. The findings underscore those strong institutions act as shock absorbers. This argues policymakers to establish a continental price observatory to monitor staple food markets in real time; to develop regional cereal production hubs in strategic megacities; to cut import reliance and Adopt trade policies that incentivize intra-African food trade through reduced tariffs.